The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an international scientific body set up by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988. The IPCC was established to provide decision-makers and others interested in climate change with an objective source of information. Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.
The main activity of the IPCC is to assemble reports on the current state of knowledge on climate change. The latest report is "Climate Change 2007", the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report.
Key statements from the report include:
- Warming of the climate system is unequivocal;
- Global greenhouse gas emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004;
- Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human) greenhouse gas concentrations;
- There is high agreement and much evidence that with current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global greenhouse gas emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades; and
- Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century.
Specifically in relation to the Reef, the IPCC noted:
- Reefs are likely to be especially affected by climate change;
- By 2020, significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur on the Great Barrier Reef;
- Increases in sea surface temperature of 3°C will result in extinction of coral and the overgrowth of reefs by algae; and
- The progressive acidification of oceans is expected to reduce the coral abundance and lead to greater erosion of reef frameworks.
The predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are grim at best, with forecasts that if nothing is done, as much as 97% of the Great Barrier Reef will bleach every year by 2050. The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report’s findings are already considered conservative and out of date. The next IPCC Assessment Report is due in 2014 and is expected to paint a much grimmer picture.